2026FIFAWorldCup/platform/alerts/alert_worker.py

import asyncio
import json
import os
from dataclasses import dataclass

import httpx
from redis.asyncio import Redis


def calc_expected_value(win_prob: float, odds: float, stake: float = 1.0) -> float:
  if odds <= 1 or not (0 <= win_prob <= 1):
    return 0.0
  loss = (1 - win_prob) * stake
  return win_prob * (odds * stake - stake) - loss


def is_ev_plus(ev: float, threshold: float = 0.05) -> bool:
  return ev > threshold


def is_sharp_money_anomaly(handle_share: float, threshold: float = 0.8) -> bool:
  return handle_share >= threshold


@dataclass(frozen=True)
class AlertRecord:
  match_id: str
  market: str
  odds: float
  ev: float
  handle_share: float


class TelegramNotifier:
  def __init__(self, token: str, chat_id: str, *, timeout: float = 10.0) -> None:
    self.token = token
    self.chat_id = chat_id
    self.client = httpx.AsyncClient(timeout=timeout)

  async def send_alert(self, message: str) -> bool:
    if not self.token or not self.chat_id:
      return False

    url = f'https://api.telegram.org/bot{self.token}/sendMessage'
    payload = {
      'chat_id': self.chat_id,
      'text': message,
      'parse_mode': 'Markdown',
    }
    response = await self.client.post(url, json=payload)
    return response.is_success

  async def close(self) -> None:
    await self.client.aclose()


class AlertService:
  def __init__(
      self,
      redis_url: str,
      notifier: TelegramNotifier,
      *,
      poll_interval_seconds: int = 10,
      sample_interval_seconds: int = 900,
      ev_threshold: float = 0.05,
      sharp_threshold: float = 0.80,
  ) -> None:
    self.redis = Redis.from_url(redis_url, decode_responses=True)
    self.notifier = notifier
    self.poll_interval_seconds = poll_interval_seconds
    self.sample_interval_seconds = sample_interval_seconds
    self.ev_threshold = ev_threshold
    self.sharp_threshold = sharp_threshold

  async def _format_alert(self, alert: AlertRecord) -> str:
    return (
      '🚨 *高價值投注警報*\n'
      f'賽事：{alert.match_id}\n'
      f'市場：{alert.market}\n'
      f'目前賠率：{alert.odds:.2f}\n'
      f'EV：{alert.ev * 100:.2f}%\n'
      f'聰明錢資金占比：{alert.handle_share * 100:.1f}%\n'
      '建議：檢視盤口失衡與新聞情緒是否同步變動。'
    )

  async def _should_send(self, match_id: str, market: str) -> bool:
    key = f'alert:sent:{match_id}:{market}'
    result = await self.redis.set(name=key, value='1', ex=self.sample_interval_seconds, nx=True)
    return bool(result)

  async def _scan_candidates(self) -> list[tuple[str, dict[str, object]]]:
    # 標準 key 形狀：odds:latest:{match_id}:{market}
    keys = await self.redis.keys('odds:latest:*')
    out: list[tuple[str, dict[str, object]]] = []
    for key in keys:
      raw = await self.redis.get(key)
      if not raw:
        continue
      try:
        payload = json.loads(raw)
      except ValueError:
        continue
      out.append((key, payload))
    return out

  async def evaluate_loop(self) -> None:
    def to_float(value: object, default: float = 0.0) -> float:
      try:
        return float(value)
      except (TypeError, ValueError):
        return default

    def normalize_share(value: float) -> float:
      # 支援 0~1 或 0~100 兩種輸入格式
      if value > 1:
        return value / 100
      return value

    try:
      while True:
        candidates = await self._scan_candidates()
        for _, payload in candidates:
          match_id = payload.get('matchId') or payload.get('match_id')
          market = payload.get('market', 'unknown')
          if not match_id:
            continue

          odds = to_float(payload.get('odds', 0.0))
          win_prob = to_float(payload.get('winProbability', payload.get('probability', 0.0)))
          handle_share = normalize_share(
            to_float(payload.get('handleShare', payload.get('handle_ratio', 0.0))),
          )

          ev = calc_expected_value(win_prob, odds, stake=1.0)
          if not (is_ev_plus(ev, self.ev_threshold) or is_sharp_money_anomaly(handle_share, self.sharp_threshold)):
            continue

          should_send = await self._should_send(match_id, market)
          if not should_send:
            continue

          message = await self._format_alert(AlertRecord(
            match_id=match_id,
            market=market,
            odds=odds,
            ev=ev,
            handle_share=handle_share,
          ))

          await self.notifier.send_alert(message)
        await asyncio.sleep(self.poll_interval_seconds)
    finally:
      await self.notifier.close()
      await self.redis.close()


async def main() -> None:
  redis_url = os.environ.get('REDIS_URL', 'redis://localhost:6379/0')
  bot_token = os.environ.get('TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN', '')
  chat_id = os.environ.get('TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID', '')
  ev_threshold = float(os.environ.get('EV_THRESHOLD', '0.05'))
  sharp_threshold = float(os.environ.get('SHARP_THRESHOLD', '0.80'))
  poll_seconds = int(os.environ.get('ALERT_POLL_SECONDS', '10'))

  notifier = TelegramNotifier(bot_token, chat_id)
  svc = AlertService(
    redis_url,
    notifier,
    poll_interval_seconds=poll_seconds,
    ev_threshold=ev_threshold,
    sharp_threshold=sharp_threshold,
  )
  await svc.evaluate_loop()


if __name__ == '__main__':
  asyncio.run(main())