"""
AWOOOI AIOps Phase 4 — Trend Predictor（趨勢預測）
===================================================
職責：numpy 線性回歸，預測 metric 在未來 N 小時是否超越警戒閾值

核心 API：
    predict_breach(metric_name, current_value, threshold) -> TrendPrediction

設計原則：
- 不使用 Prophet（500MB+ Stan 依賴），改用 numpy 線性回歸
- 從 DynamicBaselineRecord 取歷史窗口資料，計算趨勢斜率
- Shadow Mode：預測只記錄 logger.info，不觸發 Alert
- 熔斷：numpy 失敗 → fallback 到最近值外推

ADR-084: Phase 4 動態異常偵測源頭升級
2026-04-15 ogt + Claude Sonnet 4.6（亞太）: Phase 4 初始建立
"""

from __future__ import annotations

from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import Any

import structlog

from src.utils.timezone import now_taipei

logger = structlog.get_logger(__name__)

# ── 常數 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
FORECAST_HOURS = 4                   # 預測未來 4 小時
MIN_DATAPOINTS_FOR_TREND = 12        # 至少 12 個資料點才能做回歸（12h）
TREND_CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD = 0.7     # R² > 0.7 → 趨勢可信
REDIS_KEY_HISTORY = "trend:history:" # hash: metric_name → JSON list of (ts, value)
REDIS_TTL_HISTORY = 86400 * 2        # 保留 2 天歷史
MAX_HISTORY_POINTS = 336             # 最多 336 個點（14天 × 24h）


# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# Data Types
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

@dataclass
class TrendPrediction:
    """趨勢預測結果"""
    metric_name: str
    current_value: float
    threshold: float
    forecast_hours: int              # 預測時間窗口（小時）
    predicted_value: float           # 預測在 forecast_hours 後的值
    slope_per_hour: float            # 每小時變化量（線性斜率）
    r_squared: float                 # 線性回歸 R²（0-1，越高趨勢越清晰）
    will_breach: bool                # 是否預測超越 threshold
    breach_in_hours: float | None    # 預計幾小時後超越（None = 不會超越）
    confidence: str                  # high / medium / low / insufficient_data
    shadow_mode: bool = True
    detected_at: str = ""


# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# Main Service
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

class TrendPredictor:
    """
    趨勢預測服務

    工作流程：
    1. 從 Redis 取近期歷史資料點（sliding window）
    2. numpy 線性回歸計算趨勢斜率
    3. 外推預測 4h 後的值
    4. 判斷是否在 4h 內超越警戒閾值
    """

    async def predict_breach(
        self,
        metric_name: str,
        current_value: float,
        threshold: float,
        forecast_hours: int = FORECAST_HOURS,
    ) -> TrendPrediction:
        """
        預測 metric 是否在 forecast_hours 內超越 threshold。

        Args:
            metric_name:    基線識別名（需與 DynamicBaselineService 一致）
            current_value:  當前觀測值
            threshold:      警戒閾值（超越 = 預警）
            forecast_hours: 預測窗口（預設 4h）

        Returns:
            TrendPrediction（Shadow Mode 時只記錄不觸發）
        """
        from src.core.feature_flags import aiops_flags

        if not aiops_flags.AIOPS_P4_TREND_PREDICTOR:
            return self._no_data_result(metric_name, current_value, threshold, forecast_hours)

        shadow_mode = aiops_flags.AIOPS_P4_SHADOW_MODE
        detected_at = now_taipei().isoformat()

        # 推送當前值到歷史
        await self._append_history(metric_name, current_value)

        # 取歷史資料
        history = await self._get_history(metric_name)
        if len(history) < MIN_DATAPOINTS_FOR_TREND:
            return TrendPrediction(
                metric_name=metric_name,
                current_value=current_value,
                threshold=threshold,
                forecast_hours=forecast_hours,
                predicted_value=current_value,
                slope_per_hour=0.0,
                r_squared=0.0,
                will_breach=current_value >= threshold,
                breach_in_hours=0.0 if current_value >= threshold else None,
                confidence="insufficient_data",
                shadow_mode=shadow_mode,
                detected_at=detected_at,
            )

        prediction = self._linear_regression_predict(
            history=history,
            current_value=current_value,
            threshold=threshold,
            forecast_hours=forecast_hours,
        )
        prediction.shadow_mode = shadow_mode
        prediction.detected_at = detected_at

        if prediction.will_breach:
            logger.info(
                "trend_breach_predicted",
                metric=metric_name,
                current=current_value,
                predicted=prediction.predicted_value,
                threshold=threshold,
                breach_in_hours=prediction.breach_in_hours,
                slope=prediction.slope_per_hour,
                r2=prediction.r_squared,
                shadow_mode=shadow_mode,
            )

        return prediction

    async def push_datapoint(
        self,
        metric_name: str,
        value: float,
    ) -> None:
        """主動推送資料點（供 ProactiveInspector 呼叫）。"""
        await self._append_history(metric_name, value)

    # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
    # Private Helpers
    # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

    def _linear_regression_predict(
        self,
        history: list[tuple[float, float]],  # (timestamp, value)
        current_value: float,
        threshold: float,
        forecast_hours: int,
    ) -> TrendPrediction:
        """
        numpy 線性回歸：y = slope * x + intercept
        x = 相對小時數（0 到 N），y = metric 值
        """
        metric_name = ""  # 呼叫方 fillback

        try:
            import numpy as np

            times = np.array([h[0] for h in history], dtype=float)
            values = np.array([h[1] for h in history], dtype=float)

            # 相對化時間（小時為單位）
            times_rel = (times - times[0]) / 3600.0

            # 線性回歸：polyfit degree=1
            coeffs = np.polyfit(times_rel, values, 1)
            slope = float(coeffs[0])   # 每小時斜率
            intercept = float(coeffs[1])

            # R² 計算
            fitted = np.polyval(coeffs, times_rel)
            ss_res = float(np.sum((values - fitted) ** 2))
            ss_tot = float(np.sum((values - np.mean(values)) ** 2))
            r2 = 1.0 - ss_res / ss_tot if ss_tot > 0 else 0.0

            # 預測 forecast_hours 後的值
            current_time_rel = (now_taipei().timestamp() - times[0]) / 3600.0
            predicted_value = slope * (current_time_rel + forecast_hours) + intercept

            # 信心度
            if r2 >= TREND_CONFIDENCE_THRESHOLD:
                confidence = "high"
            elif r2 >= 0.4:
                confidence = "medium"
            else:
                confidence = "low"

            # 是否超越閾值
            will_breach = predicted_value >= threshold
            breach_in_hours: float | None = None

            if will_breach and slope > 0 and current_value < threshold:
                # 計算幾小時後超越：current_value + slope * h = threshold
                breach_in_hours = round((threshold - current_value) / slope, 2)
                breach_in_hours = min(breach_in_hours, float(forecast_hours))
            elif current_value >= threshold:
                breach_in_hours = 0.0

            return TrendPrediction(
                metric_name=metric_name,
                current_value=current_value,
                threshold=threshold,
                forecast_hours=forecast_hours,
                predicted_value=round(predicted_value, 4),
                slope_per_hour=round(slope, 6),
                r_squared=round(r2, 4),
                will_breach=will_breach,
                breach_in_hours=breach_in_hours,
                confidence=confidence,
            )

        except Exception as e:
            logger.warning("trend_regression_failed", error=str(e))
            # Fallback：最近值外推
            return TrendPrediction(
                metric_name=metric_name,
                current_value=current_value,
                threshold=threshold,
                forecast_hours=forecast_hours,
                predicted_value=current_value,
                slope_per_hour=0.0,
                r_squared=0.0,
                will_breach=current_value >= threshold,
                breach_in_hours=0.0 if current_value >= threshold else None,
                confidence="low",
            )

    async def _append_history(self, metric_name: str, value: float) -> None:
        """推送資料點到 Redis 滑動視窗（最舊的被 trim 掉）。"""
        try:
            import json
            from src.core.redis_client import get_redis
            r = get_redis()
            key = f"{REDIS_KEY_HISTORY}{metric_name}"
            point = json.dumps([now_taipei().timestamp(), value])
            await r.rpush(key, point)
            await r.ltrim(key, -MAX_HISTORY_POINTS, -1)  # 保留最新 N 個點
            await r.expire(key, REDIS_TTL_HISTORY)
        except Exception as e:
            logger.warning("trend_history_append_failed", metric=metric_name, error=str(e))

    async def _get_history(self, metric_name: str) -> list[tuple[float, float]]:
        """從 Redis 取歷史資料點。"""
        try:
            import json
            from src.core.redis_client import get_redis
            r = get_redis()
            key = f"{REDIS_KEY_HISTORY}{metric_name}"
            raw = await r.lrange(key, 0, -1)
            return [tuple(json.loads(item)) for item in raw]
        except Exception as e:
            logger.warning("trend_history_get_failed", metric=metric_name, error=str(e))
            return []

    def _no_data_result(
        self,
        metric_name: str,
        current_value: float,
        threshold: float,
        forecast_hours: int,
    ) -> TrendPrediction:
        """Feature flag 關閉時的空結果。"""
        return TrendPrediction(
            metric_name=metric_name,
            current_value=current_value,
            threshold=threshold,
            forecast_hours=forecast_hours,
            predicted_value=current_value,
            slope_per_hour=0.0,
            r_squared=0.0,
            will_breach=False,
            breach_in_hours=None,
            confidence="insufficient_data",
            shadow_mode=True,
            detected_at=now_taipei().isoformat(),
        )


# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# Singleton
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

_predictor: TrendPredictor | None = None


def get_trend_predictor() -> TrendPredictor:
    global _predictor
    if _predictor is None:
        _predictor = TrendPredictor()
    return _predictor