258 lines
9.0 KiB
TypeScript
258 lines
9.0 KiB
TypeScript
'use client';
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import { useEffect, useMemo, useState } from 'react';
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import { PlayerMatchupRadar } from '@/components/PlayerMatchupRadar';
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import { PropValueCard } from '@/components/PropValueCard';
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import {
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estimatePlayerPropProbability,
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type PlayerMetricProfile,
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} from '@/lib/betting-utils';
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import {
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calculatePlayerProps,
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type PlayerPropsResponse,
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} from '@/lib/analytics-api';
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type Metric = 'shots' | 'shots_on_target' | 'passes';
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type RadarMetric = {
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攻擊: number;
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運球: number;
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組織: number;
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壓迫: number;
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對位完成: number;
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穩定度: number;
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};
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const metricLabelMap: Record<Metric, string> = {
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shots: '射門',
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shots_on_target: '射正',
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passes: '傳球',
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};
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export default function PlayerPropsPage() {
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const [playerName, setPlayerName] = useState('Kylian Mbappé');
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const [opponentName, setOpponentName] = useState('墨西哥');
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const [metric, setMetric] = useState<Metric>('shots');
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const [baselineMean, setBaselineMean] = useState(3.2);
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const [line, setLine] = useState(1.5);
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const [matchMinutes, setMatchMinutes] = useState(90);
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const [bookmakerOdds, setBookmakerOdds] = useState(2.15);
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const [loading, setLoading] = useState(false);
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const [errorMessage, setErrorMessage] = useState('');
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const [analysis, setAnalysis] = useState<PlayerPropsResponse | null>(null);
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const [radarMetric] = useState<RadarMetric>({
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攻擊: 72,
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運球: 68,
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組織: 74,
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壓迫: 61,
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對位完成: 66,
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穩定度: 70,
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});
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const profile = useMemo<PlayerMetricProfile>(() => ({
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playerId: playerName,
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metric,
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baselineMean,
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line,
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matchMinutes,
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teamAttackFactor: 1.15,
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opponentDefenceFactor: 0.92,
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weatherFatigueFactor: 1.02,
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}), [playerName, metric, baselineMean, line, matchMinutes]);
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const estimate = useMemo(() => estimatePlayerPropProbability(profile), [profile]);
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const fallback = useMemo(
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() =>
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({
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metric,
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line,
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over_probability: estimate.overProbability,
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under_probability: estimate.underProbability,
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expected_count: estimate.expectedCount,
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p5: Number((estimate.expectedCount * 0.55).toFixed(2)),
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p50: Number((estimate.expectedCount * 1.05).toFixed(2)),
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p95: Number((estimate.expectedCount * 1.65).toFixed(2)),
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simulation_runs: 12000,
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edge: null,
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top_edge: false,
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bookmaker_over_odds: bookmakerOdds,
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implied_prob: 1 / bookmakerOdds,
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}) as PlayerPropsResponse,
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[metric, line, estimate, bookmakerOdds],
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);
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useEffect(() => {
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const signal = new AbortController();
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const runAnalysis = async () => {
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setLoading(true);
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setErrorMessage('');
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try {
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const result = await calculatePlayerProps({
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player_id: playerName,
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player_name: playerName,
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metric,
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baseline_mean: baselineMean,
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line,
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match_minutes: matchMinutes,
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team_attack_factor: 1.15,
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opponent_defence_factor: 0.92,
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weather_fatigue_factor: 1.02,
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bookmaker_over_odds: bookmakerOdds,
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simulations: 12000,
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});
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if (signal.signal.aborted) {
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return;
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}
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setAnalysis(result);
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} catch (error) {
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if (signal.signal.aborted) {
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return;
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}
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setErrorMessage(error instanceof Error ? error.message : '道具盤分析暫時無法使用');
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setAnalysis(fallback);
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} finally {
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if (!signal.signal.aborted) {
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setLoading(false);
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}
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}
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};
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runAnalysis();
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return () => {
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signal.abort();
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};
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}, [fallback, line, metric, baselineMean, bookmakerOdds, matchMinutes, playerName]);
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const current = analysis ?? fallback;
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const edgePercent = current.edge === null ? (current.over_probability - (current.implied_prob ?? 0)) * 100 : current.edge * 100;
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return (
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<div className="space-y-4">
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<h2 className="dot-matrix text-2xl text-[#7d2a15]">球員道具盤（球員道具盤）專業模組</h2>
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<section className="panel-glow rounded-2xl border-dashed p-4">
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<p className="text-sm leading-6 text-[#7a5b46]">
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目前此頁是手動參數模擬器，不是即時球員道具盤報價。只有當球員出賽時間、先發、盤口與授權道具盤賠率接入後，才會標示為正式推薦。
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</p>
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</section>
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<section className="panel-glow rounded-2xl p-4">
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<h3 className="dot-matrix text-lg text-[#7d2a15]">道具盤參數</h3>
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<div className="mt-3 grid gap-3 md:grid-cols-2">
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<label className="text-sm text-[#7a5b46]">
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球員名稱
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<input
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className="mt-2 w-full rounded-lg border border-[#e0c6a8] bg-white/70 px-3 py-2"
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value={playerName}
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onChange={(event) => setPlayerName(event.target.value)}
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/>
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</label>
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<label className="text-sm text-[#7a5b46]">
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對手球隊
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<input
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className="mt-2 w-full rounded-lg border border-[#e0c6a8] bg-white/70 px-3 py-2"
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value={opponentName}
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onChange={(event) => setOpponentName(event.target.value)}
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/>
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</label>
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<label className="text-sm text-[#7a5b46]">
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道具類型
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<select
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className="mt-2 w-full rounded-lg border border-[#e0c6a8] bg-white/70 px-3 py-2"
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value={metric}
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onChange={(event) => setMetric(event.target.value as Metric)}
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>
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<option value="shots">射門</option>
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<option value="shots_on_target">射正</option>
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<option value="passes">傳球數</option>
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</select>
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</label>
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<label className="text-sm text-[#7a5b46]">
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基準基線（平均值）
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<input
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className="mt-2 w-full rounded-lg border border-[#e0c6a8] bg-white/70 px-3 py-2"
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type="number"
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step={0.1}
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value={baselineMean}
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onChange={(event) => setBaselineMean(Number(event.target.value))}
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/>
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</label>
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<label className="text-sm text-[#7a5b46]">
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盤口 O/U 線
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<input
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className="mt-2 w-full rounded-lg border border-[#e0c6a8] bg-white/70 px-3 py-2"
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type="number"
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step={0.5}
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value={line}
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onChange={(event) => setLine(Number(event.target.value))}
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/>
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</label>
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<label className="text-sm text-[#7a5b46]">
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莊家 Over 賠率
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<input
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className="mt-2 w-full rounded-lg border border-[#e0c6a8] bg-white/70 px-3 py-2"
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type="number"
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step={0.01}
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value={bookmakerOdds}
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onChange={(event) => setBookmakerOdds(Number(event.target.value))}
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/>
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</label>
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</div>
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</section>
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<section className="grid gap-4 lg:grid-cols-2">
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<PropValueCard
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playerName={playerName}
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metricLabel={metricLabelMap[metric]}
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line={current.line}
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overProbability={current.over_probability}
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impliedProb={current.implied_prob ?? 1 / bookmakerOdds}
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edgePercent={Number(edgePercent.toFixed(1))}
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topEdge={current.top_edge}
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/>
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<div className="grid gap-3">
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<article className="panel-glow rounded-2xl p-4">
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<h3 className="dot-matrix text-lg text-[#7d2a15]">道具盤輸出</h3>
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<p className="mt-2 text-sm text-[#7a5b46]">預期數：{current.expected_count}</p>
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<p className="mt-1 text-sm text-[#7a5b46]">低位分位（P5）：{current.p5}</p>
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<p className="mt-1 text-sm text-[#7a5b46]">中位數（P50）：{current.p50}</p>
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<p className="mt-1 text-sm text-[#7a5b46]">高位分位（P95）：{current.p95}</p>
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<p className="mt-1 text-xs text-[#6f4f3c]">樣本模擬：{current.simulation_runs.toLocaleString()} 次</p>
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{loading ? <p className="mt-2 text-xs text-[#a16b4f]">更新道具盤模型中…</p> : null}
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{errorMessage ? <p className="mt-2 text-xs text-[#8c2f2f]">{errorMessage}</p> : null}
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</article>
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<article className="panel-glow rounded-2xl p-4">
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<h3 className="dot-matrix text-lg text-[#7d2a15]">模擬控制</h3>
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<label className="text-sm text-[#7a5b46]">
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參與分鐘
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<input
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className="mt-2 w-full rounded-lg border border-[#e0c6a8] bg-white/70 px-3 py-2"
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type="range"
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min={60}
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max={120}
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value={matchMinutes}
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onChange={(event) => setMatchMinutes(Number(event.target.value))}
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/>
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<p className="text-xs text-[#7a5b46]">{matchMinutes} 分鐘</p>
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</label>
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</article>
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</div>
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</section>
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<PlayerMatchupRadar
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playerName={playerName}
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opponentName={opponentName}
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metrics={radarMetric}
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/>
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</div>
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);
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}
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