132 lines
3.8 KiB
Python
132 lines
3.8 KiB
Python
"""裁判與天候條件量化模組。"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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from dataclasses import dataclass
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def calculate_referee_strictness_index(
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avg_yellow_cards: float,
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penalties_per_game: float,
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) -> float:
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"""裁判嚴厲度指標（0-100）。"""
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yellow = max(0.0, min(avg_yellow_cards, 8.0)) / 8.0
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penalties = max(0.0, min(penalties_per_game, 2.5)) / 2.5
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return round(yellow * 55 + penalties * 45, 4)
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def detect_cards_pressure_signal(
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strictness_index: float,
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cards_ou_line: float,
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) -> bool:
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"""當裁判嚴格且莊家的卡數 O/U 開得偏低時，判斷為可能的逆風盤口。"""
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return strictness_index >= 80 and cards_ou_line <= 4.5
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def estimate_heat_index(ambient_temp_c: float, humidity_pct: float) -> float:
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"""簡化的 Heat Index（攝氏）。"""
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t = max(-60.0, min(60.0, ambient_temp_c))
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rh = max(0.0, min(100.0, humidity_pct))
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hi = (
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-8.784695
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+ 1.61139411 * t
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+ 2.338549 * rh
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- 0.14611605 * t * rh
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- 0.012308094 * t * t
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- 0.016424828 * rh * rh
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+ 0.002211732 * t * t * rh
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+ 0.00072546 * t * rh * rh
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- 0.000003582 * t * t * rh * rh
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)
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return round(max(0.0, hi), 4)
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@dataclass(frozen=True)
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class MatchConditionSignal:
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strictness_index: float
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heat_index: float
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cards_pressure_alert: bool
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cards_ou_line: float
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second_half_home_attack: float
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second_half_away_attack: float
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second_half_under_recommendation: bool
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attacker_direction: str
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def adjust_attack_for_heat_and_altitude(
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base_attack: float,
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*,
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heat_index: float,
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is_second_half: bool,
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venue_altitude_meters: float | None = None,
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) -> float:
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"""極端環境下的下半場攻擊效率修正。"""
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if not is_second_half:
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return round(float(base_attack), 6)
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heat_penalty = max(0.0, heat_index - 28.0) / 120.0 # 每 1.2 度約降 1%
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altitude_penalty = 0.0
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if venue_altitude_meters and venue_altitude_meters > 1500:
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altitude_penalty = min(0.22, (venue_altitude_meters - 1500) / 8000.0)
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factor = max(0.6, 1 - heat_penalty - altitude_penalty)
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return round(float(base_attack * factor), 6)
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def evaluate_match_conditions(
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*,
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avg_yellow_cards: float,
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penalties_per_game: float,
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cards_ou_line: float,
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temp_c: float,
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humidity_pct: float,
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venue_altitude_meters: int,
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home_second_half_attack: float,
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away_second_half_attack: float,
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) -> MatchConditionSignal:
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"""整合裁判與天候對下半場盤口與進攻效率的衝擊。"""
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strictness_index = calculate_referee_strictness_index(avg_yellow_cards, penalties_per_game)
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heat_index = estimate_heat_index(temp_c, humidity_pct)
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adjusted_home = adjust_attack_for_heat_and_altitude(
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home_second_half_attack,
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heat_index=heat_index,
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is_second_half=True,
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venue_altitude_meters=venue_altitude_meters,
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)
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adjusted_away = adjust_attack_for_heat_and_altitude(
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away_second_half_attack,
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heat_index=heat_index,
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is_second_half=True,
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venue_altitude_meters=venue_altitude_meters,
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)
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cards_pressure = detect_cards_pressure_signal(strictness_index, cards_ou_line)
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high_heat = heat_index >= 32.0
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heat_pressure_delta = home_second_half_attack + away_second_half_attack
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second_half_under = high_heat and (adjusted_home + adjusted_away) <= heat_pressure_delta * 0.95
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if adjusted_home > adjusted_away:
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attacker_direction = '上場勢優勢偏向主隊'
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elif adjusted_home < adjusted_away:
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attacker_direction = '上場勢優勢偏向客隊'
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else:
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attacker_direction = '攻勢對稱'
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return MatchConditionSignal(
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strictness_index=strictness_index,
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heat_index=heat_index,
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cards_pressure_alert=cards_pressure,
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cards_ou_line=cards_ou_line,
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second_half_home_attack=adjusted_home,
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second_half_away_attack=adjusted_away,
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second_half_under_recommendation=second_half_under,
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attacker_direction=attacker_direction,
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)
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