242 lines
7.1 KiB
Python
242 lines
7.1 KiB
Python
"""個人投注弱點分析（Betting Leaks）引擎。
|
||
|
||
將使用者歷史注單做群組化彙總，找出長期導致虧損的下注模式。
|
||
"""
|
||
|
||
from __future__ import annotations
|
||
|
||
from dataclasses import dataclass
|
||
from typing import Any
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _safe_float(value: Any, default: float | None = None) -> float | None:
|
||
try:
|
||
return float(value)
|
||
except (TypeError, ValueError):
|
||
return default
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _safe_int(value: Any, default: int | None = None) -> int | None:
|
||
try:
|
||
return int(value)
|
||
except (TypeError, ValueError):
|
||
return default
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _to_bool(value: Any, default: bool = False) -> bool:
|
||
if isinstance(value, bool):
|
||
return value
|
||
if isinstance(value, str):
|
||
return value.strip().lower() in {'1', 'true', 't', 'yes', 'y'}
|
||
if isinstance(value, (int, float)):
|
||
return value not in {0}
|
||
return default
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _odds_bucket(odds: float | None, step: float = 0.5) -> str:
|
||
if odds is None or odds <= 0:
|
||
return 'N/A'
|
||
if odds <= 1:
|
||
return '1.00-1.50'
|
||
bucket_start = ((odds - 1) // step) * step + 1
|
||
bucket_end = bucket_start + step
|
||
return f'{bucket_start:.2f}-{bucket_end:.2f}'
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _calculate_pnl(stake: float, is_win: bool, closing_odds: float | None, recommended_odds: float | None) -> float:
|
||
"""依下注結果與收盤賠率計算實際 P/L。"""
|
||
|
||
effective_odds = closing_odds
|
||
if effective_odds is None or effective_odds <= 1:
|
||
effective_odds = recommended_odds
|
||
|
||
if effective_odds is None or effective_odds <= 1 or stake <= 0:
|
||
return 0.0
|
||
|
||
if is_win:
|
||
return stake * (effective_odds - 1)
|
||
return -stake
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _calculate_clv(recommended_odds: float | None, closing_odds: float | None) -> float | None:
|
||
if recommended_odds is None or closing_odds is None:
|
||
return None
|
||
if recommended_odds <= 0 or closing_odds <= 0:
|
||
return None
|
||
return (recommended_odds / closing_odds - 1) * 100
|
||
|
||
|
||
@dataclass(frozen=True)
|
||
class LeakageCluster:
|
||
market_type: str
|
||
bet_type: str
|
||
odds_bucket: str
|
||
match_stage: str
|
||
bet_count: int
|
||
total_stake: float
|
||
closed_count: int
|
||
win_count: int
|
||
total_pnl: float
|
||
avg_clv_percent: float
|
||
roi_percent: float
|
||
hit_rate_percent: float
|
||
status: str
|
||
|
||
def as_dict(self) -> dict[str, Any]:
|
||
return {
|
||
'market_type': self.market_type,
|
||
'bet_type': self.bet_type,
|
||
'odds_bucket': self.odds_bucket,
|
||
'match_stage': self.match_stage,
|
||
'bet_count': self.bet_count,
|
||
'total_stake': self.total_stake,
|
||
'closed_count': self.closed_count,
|
||
'win_count': self.win_count,
|
||
'total_pnl': self.total_pnl,
|
||
'avg_clv_percent': self.avg_clv_percent,
|
||
'roi_percent': self.roi_percent,
|
||
'hit_rate_percent': self.hit_rate_percent,
|
||
'status': self.status,
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
|
||
@dataclass(frozen=True)
|
||
class HardTruth:
|
||
title: str
|
||
message: str
|
||
cluster: dict[str, Any]
|
||
|
||
|
||
def analyze_user_leaks(user_bets: list[dict[str, Any]]) -> dict[str, Any]:
|
||
"""分析使用者注單中的高頻虧損模式，回傳風險群組與漏點警告。"""
|
||
|
||
raw_bets = user_bets if isinstance(user_bets, list) else []
|
||
|
||
grouped: dict[tuple[str, str, str, str], dict[str, Any]] = {}
|
||
|
||
for raw in raw_bets:
|
||
if not isinstance(raw, dict):
|
||
continue
|
||
|
||
market_type = str(raw.get('market_type', 'unknown')).strip() or 'unknown'
|
||
is_single = raw.get('parlay_type') in (None, 'single', '', 'single_bet')
|
||
bet_type = 'single' if is_single else 'parlay'
|
||
odds = _safe_float(raw.get('odds'))
|
||
stake = _safe_float(raw.get('stake'))
|
||
if stake is None or stake <= 0:
|
||
continue
|
||
|
||
match_stage = str(raw.get('match_stage', raw.get('stage', 'unknown'))).strip() or 'unknown'
|
||
odds_band = _odds_bucket(odds)
|
||
key = (market_type, bet_type, odds_band, match_stage)
|
||
|
||
entry = grouped.setdefault(
|
||
key,
|
||
{
|
||
'bet_count': 0,
|
||
'total_stake': 0.0,
|
||
'closed_count': 0,
|
||
'win_count': 0,
|
||
'total_pnl': 0.0,
|
||
'clv_values': [] as list[float],
|
||
},
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
entry['bet_count'] += 1
|
||
entry['total_stake'] += stake
|
||
|
||
is_settled = _to_bool(raw.get('is_settled'), default=False)
|
||
if not is_settled:
|
||
continue
|
||
|
||
is_win = _to_bool(raw.get('is_win'))
|
||
if is_win:
|
||
entry['win_count'] += 1
|
||
|
||
entry['closed_count'] += 1
|
||
closing_odds = _safe_float(raw.get('closing_odds'))
|
||
recommended_odds = odds or _safe_float(raw.get('recommended_odds'))
|
||
pnl = _calculate_pnl(
|
||
stake=stake,
|
||
is_win=is_win,
|
||
closing_odds=closing_odds,
|
||
recommended_odds=recommended_odds,
|
||
)
|
||
entry['total_pnl'] += pnl
|
||
|
||
clv = _calculate_clv(recommended_odds, closing_odds)
|
||
if clv is not None:
|
||
entry['clv_values'].append(clv)
|
||
|
||
total_bets = sum(v['bet_count'] for v in grouped.values())
|
||
settled_bets = sum(v['closed_count'] for v in grouped.values())
|
||
total_stake = sum(v['total_stake'] for v in grouped.values())
|
||
total_pnl = sum(v['total_pnl'] for v in grouped.values())
|
||
total_win = sum(v['win_count'] for v in grouped.values())
|
||
|
||
clusters: list[LeakageCluster] = []
|
||
hard_truths: list[HardTruth] = []
|
||
|
||
for (market_type, bet_type, odds_bucket, match_stage), row in grouped.items():
|
||
bet_count = int(row['bet_count'])
|
||
closed_count = int(row['closed_count'])
|
||
total_stake_group = float(row['total_stake'])
|
||
total_pnl_group = float(row['total_pnl'])
|
||
|
||
roi = (total_pnl_group / total_stake_group * 100) if total_stake_group > 0 else 0.0
|
||
win_rate = (row['win_count'] / closed_count * 100) if closed_count > 0 else 0.0
|
||
avg_clv = (sum(row['clv_values']) / len(row['clv_values'])) if row['clv_values'] else 0.0
|
||
|
||
status = 'OK'
|
||
if bet_count > 20 and roi < -10:
|
||
status = 'CRITICAL_LEAK'
|
||
hard_truths.append(
|
||
HardTruth(
|
||
title='嚴重漏財點',
|
||
message=(
|
||
f'{match_stage} / {bet_type} / {market_type} / {odds_bucket} 的下注次數 {bet_count} 場，'
|
||
f'ROI {roi:.2f}%，請先降低此區塊投注比例。'
|
||
),
|
||
cluster={
|
||
'market_type': market_type,
|
||
'bet_type': bet_type,
|
||
'odds_bucket': odds_bucket,
|
||
'match_stage': match_stage,
|
||
},
|
||
).__dict__,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
clusters.append(
|
||
LeakageCluster(
|
||
market_type=market_type,
|
||
bet_type=bet_type,
|
||
odds_bucket=odds_bucket,
|
||
match_stage=match_stage,
|
||
bet_count=bet_count,
|
||
total_stake=round(total_stake_group, 2),
|
||
closed_count=closed_count,
|
||
win_count=row['win_count'],
|
||
total_pnl=round(total_pnl_group, 2),
|
||
avg_clv_percent=round(avg_clv, 4),
|
||
roi_percent=round(roi, 4),
|
||
hit_rate_percent=round(win_rate, 2),
|
||
status=status,
|
||
),
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
clusters.sort(key=lambda c: c.roi_percent)
|
||
|
||
overall_roi = (total_pnl / total_stake * 100) if total_stake > 0 else 0.0
|
||
overall_hit_rate = (total_win / settled_bets * 100) if settled_bets > 0 else 0.0
|
||
|
||
return {
|
||
'total_bet_count': total_bets,
|
||
'settled_bet_count': settled_bets,
|
||
'total_stake': round(total_stake, 2),
|
||
'total_pnl': round(total_pnl, 2),
|
||
'overall_roi_percent': round(overall_roi, 4),
|
||
'overall_hit_rate_percent': round(overall_hit_rate, 2),
|
||
'clusters': [c.as_dict() for c in clusters],
|
||
'hard_truths': [h.__dict__ for h in hard_truths],
|
||
}
|