"""裁判尺度分析器。"""

from __future__ import annotations

from typing import Dict

from .ev_calculator import calculate_expected_value


def calculate_cards_ev(
    referee_stats: dict,
    match_tension_index: float,
    bookmaker_card_line: float,
    bookmaker_odds: float,
) -> dict[str, float | bool | str]:
    """判斷裁判/對手張力對紅黃牌盤口的偏差與價值。

    依據裁判最近場次平均黃牌數與比賽張力（衝突度）估算
    本場真實牌數，並與莊家 O/U 盤口比較。
    """

    if bookmaker_odds <= 1:
        raise ValueError('bookmaker_odds 必須大於 1')
    if bookmaker_card_line <= 0:
        raise ValueError('bookmaker_card_line 必須大於 0')
    if not 0 <= match_tension_index <= 1:
        raise ValueError('match_tension_index 必須在 0~1')

    avg_cards = float(referee_stats.get('avg_yellow_cards', 0.0) or 0.0)
    penalties_per_game = float(referee_stats.get('penalties_per_game', 0.0) or 0.0)

    strictness_index = 20.0 + avg_cards * 1.9 + penalties_per_game * 2.5
    # 綜合壓力補正，將裁判嚴厲度與球隊/賽事張力轉為預測牌數。
    expected_cards = max(
        0.5,
        strictness_index * (0.45 + 0.55 * max(0.0, min(match_tension_index, 1.0))),
    )

    true_prob = min(1.0, max(0.0, expected_cards / (bookmaker_card_line * 1.4)))
    implied_prob = 1.0 / bookmaker_odds
    edge = true_prob - implied_prob

    ev = calculate_expected_value(true_prob, bookmaker_odds, stake=100.0)

    return {
        'strictness_index': round(strictness_index, 3),
        'expected_total_cards': round(expected_cards, 3),
        'true_prob': round(true_prob, 4),
        'implied_prob': round(implied_prob, 4),
        'edge_percent': round(edge * 100, 3),
        'is_value_bet': ev['is_value_bet'],
        'ev_percentage': ev['ev_percentage'],
    }