diff --git a/platform/backend/app/analytics/daily_card_generator.py b/platform/backend/app/analytics/daily_card_generator.py
index c60f924..e1e0b08 100644
--- a/platform/backend/app/analytics/daily_card_generator.py
+++ b/platform/backend/app/analytics/daily_card_generator.py
@@ -416,7 +416,8 @@ def _finalize_confidence_score(
   adjusted += _clamp((true_prob - 0.56) * 10.0, -2.5, 3.0)
   adjusted += _clamp((ev_percent - 3.0) * 0.10, -1.2, 2.6)
   adjusted += _clamp((edge_percent - 2.0) * 0.08, -1.0, 2.4)
-  adjusted += _stable_confidence_jitter(match_id, market_type, selection, recommendation, target_odds)
+  confidence_jitter = _stable_confidence_jitter(match_id, market_type, selection, recommendation, target_odds)
+  adjusted += confidence_jitter
 
   if market_tier in {'exact_score', 'speculative', 'sgp'} or risk_level in {'speculative', 'sgp'}:
     floor = 12.0
@@ -449,6 +450,12 @@ def _finalize_confidence_score(
   if ceiling < floor:
     floor = max(8.0, ceiling - 8.0)
 
+  if adjusted <= floor:
+    floor_lift = (confidence_jitter + 2.4) * 0.55
+    floor_lift += _clamp((true_prob - 0.10) * 3.0, 0.0, 1.8)
+    floor_lift += _clamp(ev_percent * 0.035, 0.0, 1.4)
+    adjusted = floor + floor_lift
+
   return round(_clamp(adjusted, floor, ceiling), 1)